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Miami Bound: The Too Early Super Bowl Preview

January 25, 2020

Image Credit: Andrew Giesemann

 

 

 

With two weeks between the conference championship game and the Super Bowl the buildup to the big game is a marathon, not a sprint. Some media members are acting like teenagers on prom night and are overeager to give their predictions out. Slow down, Sparky, there is a ways to go before the big game and if you have already shot your shot what are you going to do next week? Some will hedge against their original prediction, but that is for amateurs.

 

Let’s avoid the recency bias inherent in a playoff run and take a step back to get a sense of the two teams that will square off in Miami on February 2. Here is a Super Bowl primer:

 

Kansas City Chiefs:   

 

-12-4; first place in the AFC West

-Points for: 451 (5th in the NFL),points against: 308 (7th in the NFL) Point differential: +143 (4th in the NFL).

-Record vs teams with a .500 record or better: 4-3; vs. 10-win teams: 3-2

 

Offense: 

28.2 points per game (5th in the NFL)

Yards per game: 379.2 (6th in the NFL); 6.2 yards per play (2nd)

For the more analytically minded, the Chiefs rank 2nd in passing DVOA and 14th in rushing DVOA (DVOA is explained here)

 

Scoring by quarter. (NFL rank) 

First Quarter: 5.4 (10th)

Second Quarter: 12.2 (1st)

Third Quarter: 6.4 (6th) 

Fourth Quarter: 5.8 (18th) 

 

Defense: 

19.2 points per game (7th in the NFL) 

Yards per game: 349.6 (17th); 5.4 yards per play (13th) 

Defensive DVOA: Pass: 6th Rush: 29th

 

Points allowed by quarter. (NFL rank)

First Quarter: 6.2 (28th)

Second Quarter: 4.3 (t-3)

Third Quarter: 3.6 (4th)

Fourth Quarter: 6.2 (15th)

 

Penalties per game: 6.7 (15th) 

Turnover margin per game: +0.4 (t-8th)

Takeaways per game: 1.3 (t-15th)

 

San Francisco 49ers:   

 

-13-3; First place in the NFC West

-Points for: 479 (2nd in the NFL), points against: 310 (8th in the NFL) Point differential: +169 (3rd in the NFL).

-Record vs teams with a .500 record or better: 7-2; vs. 10-win teams: 3-2

 

Offense: 

29.2 points per game (2nd in the NFL)

Yards per game: 381.1 (4th in the NFL); 6.0 yards per play (5th)

For the more analytically minded, the 49ers rank 8th in passing DVOA and 13th in rushing DVOA (DVOA is explained here)

 

Scoring by quarter. (NFL rank) 

First Quarter: 6.7 (3rd)

Second Quarter: 9.0 (5th)

Third Quarter: 7.2 (2nd) 

Fourth Quarter: 7.3 (t-7th) 

 

Defense: 

19.4 points per game (8th in the NFL) 

Yards per game: 281.8 (2nd); 4.7 yards per play (t-1st) 

Defensive DVOA: Pass: 2nd Rush: 11th

 

Points allowed by quarter. (NFL rank):

First Quarter: 4.1 (11th)

Second Quarter: 4.3 (t-2)

Third Quarter: 4.6 (t-12th)

Fourth Quarter: 5.7 (12th)

 

Penalties per game: 6.2 (10th) 

Turnover margin per game: +0.4 (t-8th)

Takeaways per game: 1.8 (t-4th)

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Stay tuned to 49ersHub for more great 49ers coverage and analysis!

 

 

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