Max Against the Spread | Week 7: Printing Money with the 49ers
The focus of these articles will always be on the locks, and right now, we’re sitting at .500 which means if we’ve been betting an equal amount on all of the locks, we’d currently be in the red. There is a lot of football left for you to turn it around and make a profit, and that will always be the goal here. With that being said, I want to point something else out.
I never bet on the 49ers, but if anyone has been doing so, they’d be sitting pretty nice right now. For the sake of discussion, if we placed a $100 wager on each of the five 49er spreads this year, our bankroll would be sitting at $773 ($273 net profit.) Not even halfway into the season and the 49ers are netting would-be bettors a nice little chunk of change.
I think the line this week is a joke and will lead to another profitable Sunday for 49er backers. Let’s dive into all of the picks.
Patriots (-10) @ Jets
Are you ready for a mind-blowing stat?
This is the first time in the history of the NFL that a team is a 10-point underdog at home while coming off a home win in which their red-headed USC quarterback returned from a battle with mononucleosis.
The Patriots are, in my opinion, the best team in the league right now, and their defense continues to punish whomever they face. To me, even on the road in a divisional game, laying ten points with the Patriots is a no-brainer, especially with an even money payout.
The pick: Patriots (-10) [EVEN]
Chargers @ Titans (-2)
The Titans have made a big change at quarterback, and will be starting Ryan Tannehill while Marcus Mariota rides the pine.
The change under center obviously adds an element of mystery to this one, but I’m still keeping the snooze-fest Titans in my locks. These Titans are one of the more frustrating teams in recent memory, as it seems they only play well with their backs against the wall. As underdogs, the Titans are 2-1 against the spread this year, and 8-5 against the spread dating back to the beginning of last season. On the flip side, as favorites, the Titans are 0-3 against the spread this year, and 2-7 against the spread dating back to the beginning of last year.
My new strategy is to bet the Titans as dogs and fade them as favorites. Let’s see how it plays out.
The pick: Chargers (+2) [-110]
Dolphins @ Bills (-17)
The amount of large spreads this year has been insane, and has to be breaking records. For a league that actively tries to protect parity, there sure are alot of dumpster fires burning brightly. And none more so than the dumpster fire burning in Miami.
Last week, the Dolphins positioned themselves to win the game with a two point conversion attempt late in the game against the Redskins. Well, they failed, and some think it was on purpose, leading to such jokes as “they didn’t go for two, they went for Tua!”
Regardless of how snug your tinfoil hat is, the Dolphins are objectively terrible this year, and I’d be surprised if they manage to score more than 6 points against the stout Buffalo defense on the road.
The Bills are 4-1 against the spread this year, while the Dolphins are 1-4, with their only cover coming against the near-equally terrible Redskins.
One last thing: on average, the Dolphins have failed to cover the spread this year by a whopping 14 points per game. That’s very bad.
The pick: Bills (-17) [-110]
49ers (-10) @ Redskins
The 49ers are going to beat the hell out of the Redskins, and if you want to print some money, go ahead and jump on this line right now. Kyle Shanahan doesn't beat around the bush when it comes to his deep-rooted repugnance of the Washington Redskins and their damn-near universally disliked majority owner, Dan Snyder. I would not be surprised at all if he goes in there and blatantly runs up the score on Snyder’s Redskins. The “Kyle Shanahan Revenge Game” alone has me all over this spread, but if that’s not enough, here are some juicy stats that should help convince you to hammer the Niners.
The 49ers are 4-1 against the spread this year overall, while going 3-0 against the spread on the road. In those five games, the 49ers are, on average, beating the projected spread by 15.4 points per game. That includes the week 3 contest against the Steelers in which the 49ers failed to cover the 6.5 points they were favored by.
Conversely, the Redskins are 1-5 against the spread this year overall, while going 0-3 against the spread at home. In those six games, the Redskins are failing to cover the spread by an average of 7.2 points per game.
As I mentioned earlier, the 49ers have been one of the most profitable teams in the league this year for bettors, and this week will be no exception.
The pick: 49ers (-10) [-110]
Remaining Games (picks in bold)
KC -3 @ DEN
LAR -3 @ ATL
JAX @ CIN +4
MIN @ DET +1.5
OAK @ GB -6
HOU (PICK) @ IND
AZ @ NYG -3
NO +3 @ CHI
BAL +3.5 @ SEA
PHI @ DAL -3
Stay tuned next week for a recap of this week’s picks as well as picks for the Week 8 games!
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