• Max Carlson

Max Against the Spread | Week 6: Bankin’ on Bridgewater

Image Credit: Andrew Giesemann

I’ll keep the preamble short, but while the overall record is officially in the garbage can, the record on the locks is above .500 and that’s always the focus here. Making picks on the rest of the slate is just a fun exercise to see how well or poorly I can pick all NFL games - but the locks are where we’re going to make some money.

I have a good feeling about sweeping the locks this week, so let’s get it.

Game 1:

Saints @ Jaguars (-2.5)

Teddy Bridgewater has been way more than serviceable while filling in for Drew Brees, so I love taking the points in this one, even as Minshew Mania is still sweeping the nation. I still have no idea what the Jaguars even are, and there’s just too much talent and experience on Sean Payton’s roster for me to bet on the Jaguars winning, let alone covering 2.5 points.

Hammer the Saints as road dogs here with the points or the money line.

The pick: Saints (+2.5) [-110]

Game 2:

Eagles @ Vikings (-3)

On paper, the Eagles have one of the best rosters in the league, and they’re finally starting to click. Their secondary can be leaky at times, but I don’t think Kirk Cousins is up to exploiting that. The Vikings will try to win this game on the ground with Dalvin Cook, and the Eagles’ front seven will commit to shutting that down and forcing Kirk to win it with his arm.

Eagles win this one outright on the road, so again, take the points or the money line here.

The pick: Eagles (+3) [EVEN]

Game 3:

Lions @ Packers (-4)

The Lions have been a sneaky good team this year, and they’ve seemed to play better with each passing week. Coming off their bye they get to face Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau. Those of you who have been following along with me these last two seasons will know how much I love betting on Rodgers at home.

Even without Davante Adams, the Packers’ offensive attack should wear down the solid Detroit defense. Look for another big day from Aaron Jones after his incredible performance in Dallas last week as the Packers win this one handily.

The pick: Packers (-4) [-110]

Niner Game:

49ers @ Rams (-3)

This is going to be a fantastically weird game, and I cannot wait. Both teams are banged up and missing key players at key positions. The 49ers, as I’m sure you know, are undefeated, and the Rams have lost two straight. Under Sean McVay, the Rams have never lost three games in a row. They’re also 6-1 against the spread when they have a rest advantage over their opponent, and the 49ers are on short rest this week after Baker Mayfield’s funeral on Monday.

This year, the 49ers are 2-0 against the spread as road dogs, and have won both contests outright. Call me a homer, but that won’t be changing this week. With Todd Gurley out, the 49ers should have no problem forcing Goff to throw while unleashing their dominant pass rushers on him all day.

I have the 49ers winning this game outright and staying undefeated, so depending on how ballsy you’re feeling, take the points or the moneyline.

The pick: 49ers (+3) [EVEN]

Remaining Games (picks in bold)

NYG @ NE -17

CAR -2.5 @ TB

CIN @ BAL -11

SEA @ CLE +1.5

HOU @ KC -4

WSH @ MIA +3.5

ATL -2.5 @ AZ

TEN +2 @ DEN

DAL -7 @ NYJ

PIT +6.5 @ LAC

Stay tuned next week for a recap of this week’s picks as well as picks for the Week seven games!

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