• Max Carlson

Max against the Spread | Week 4: Bye Week Locks


With the 49ers on a bye this week, I’ll be focusing on my three locks while I look to stay the course and remain over .500 on the year. I really like the board this week, and my three locks feature all favorites (including one on the road) that should all cover handily.

So yank that non-vested pension out, throw it on these locks, and let’s retire tomorrow!

Game 1:

Chiefs (-7) @ Lions

The Chiefs remain undefeated against the spread this year, and they’re showing no sign of regression from last year’s historic season. This week they head to the Motor City to take on a Lions team, that surprisingly, is also undefeated on the year.

However, while technically true, the Lions suffered an ugly Week 1 collapse that resulted in a tie against the new-look Arizona Cardinals. They’ve looked better over the following next two weeks, beating the Eagles and the Chargers respectively, but I’m still not sold on Detroit.

Until I see otherwise, my money will always be on Patrick Mahomes,. especially when I only have to lay single digit points. Dating back to the beginning of last season, MaAhomes and the Chiefs are a comfortable 4-2 against the spread as road favorites, so the moment clearly isn’t too big for them.

The pick: Chiefs (-7) [-115]

Game 2:

Raiders @ Colts (-6.5)

In no particular order, my three favorite things in life are hanging out with my family, travelling, and betting against the Raiders.

Dating back to Week 1 of last season, the Oakland Raiders are a lousy 2-6 against the spread as away underdogs, and that won’t change this week as they take on the surprisingly (to some) good Indianapolis Colts. Jacoby Brissett has risen to the occasion this year and has played well enough to support his strong defense and keep the Colts in the hunt early- on in the year. Against the spread, the Colts are 2-0-1 this year, so aside from the discrepancy in talent on both teams, the trends also indicate that Indy should have no problem covering this one.

The pick: Colts (-6.5) [-115]

Game 3:

Redskins @ Giants (-3)

After an entire offseason of the Twitter-verse relentlessly smack talking the Giants’ decision to draft Daniel Jones early in the first round of the NFL Draft, he is now the starter, and the smack talk has vanished. The kid looked really good last week, in a game where he not only made his NFL debut, but a game where he led his team to a come-from-behind victory, on the road, against a tough Todd Bowles- led defense in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense. Now, he returns home as a hero, and gets to face the lousy Redskins in front of what should be an electric supporting crowd.

While the Redskins have been cartoonishly bad, there is a chance that they too could be showcasing their recent first round quarterback, Dwayne Haskins. Even if he does get the nod over Case Keenum, I can’t see the Redskins’ defense keeping this game close, and the Giants should win this one by at least a touchdown - even without superstar RB Saquon Barkley.

The pick: Giants (-3) [-120]

Remaining Games (picks in bold)

PHI @ GB -3.5

NE -7 @ BUF

TEN +3.5 @ ATL

CLE @ BAL -6.5

CAR @ HOU -4

LAC @ MIA +14.5

SEA -5.5 @ ARI

TB @ LAR -9.5

MIN +1.5 @ CHI

JAX +3 @ DEN

DAL @ NO +2.5

CIN +3.5 @ PIT

Stay tuned next week for a recap of this week’s picks as well as picks for the Week 5 games!

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