Last week was a bit rough, as I missed on two out of my three locks. The Colts were blanked by the Jaguars, and the Saints lost outright to the Cowboys. Both of those results were extremely unexpected, but that happens in sports betting. That’s what makes it fun and agonizing all at once. I nailed my Niners and Chargers picks, so the week wasn’t a total disaster. This week has three really juicy locks that I have absolutely no reservations about. Let’s get right to it.
Saints (-8) @ Buccaneers
The Cowboys shocked the world last week when they not only covered the spread, but won outright against the seemingly unstoppable Saints. The Cowboys were able to do so with their very strong front seven applying pressure and getting in Drew Brees’ face all game.
This week, the Saints get a chance to rebound against arguably the worst defense in the league. If it weren’t for last week, this spread would probably be set at minus-13. Vegas sets their spreads in a way that will hopefully get even action from bettors on both sides, ensuring a profit for the book. They’re banking on people being afraid of the Saints after last week’s loss, and hoping half of the public will take Tampa.
Don’t bite. Take the Saints at minus-8 and don’t look back. The Saints know they need to keep winning if they want the number one seed, and they’ll make the necessary corrections and blow out Tampa.
The pick: Saints (-8) [OVER 56]
Ravens @ Chiefs (-6.5)
Baltimore has a very good defense, and Lamar Jackson has reinvigorated their offense. If this game were in Baltimore, I might be inclined to take the Ravens to cover, but that’s not the case. I’m not betting on a rookie QB going into the loudest stadium in the NFL and staying within a TD of Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Will the Ravens be able to put up some points against the lowly Chiefs’ defense? Absolutely. But there’s simply no way they keep this one close.
The Chiefs will obviously be without Kareem Hunt, but Spencer Ware is more than capable of doing damage on the ground - especially when the defense will have to keep Patrick Mahomes honest. There’s no way they can stack the box and expect to win. The Chiefs will dominate the time of possession and win this game by at least two scores.
The pick: Chiefs (-7) [OVER 53]
Eagles @ Cowboys (-3.5)
I’m officially on the Dallas bandwagon. They looked very good last week, and showed the world that their little win streak is for real. Everyone laughed at Jerry Jones when the Cowboys traded what appeared to be a high first round pick to Oakland for struggling wideout Amari Cooper. Now, Dallas is the favorite to win the NFC East, and that’s due largely in part to Cooper’s arrival.
Funny how that works.
His route running and hands have been phenomenal and that offense is suddenly looking very dynamic. Pair that with their young, FAST LB corps, and you have a team that is rolling right now. The Eagles are bipolar, but I’m confident that the defending SB champs will lose this one by 4 or more points in Jerry World.
The pick: Cowboys (-3.5) [OVER 44]
Broncos (-4) @ 49ers
The Niners got completely embarrassed last week in Seattle (shocker, I know), and now they get to try and rebound against an even better defense. While Denver is stronger than Seattle on the defensive side of the ball, they’re much less intimidating on the offensive side - especially with the recent, unfortunate news that WR Emmanuel Sanders tore his ACL in practice. They already traded away Demaryius Thomas earlier in the year, so now their only legitimate receiving threat is rookie Courtland Sutton out of SMU. The kid is extremely talented, but he’ll have his hands full with Richard Sherman, and Ahkello Witherspoon, who has quietly been playing some much better ball as of late.
I’m expecting a low-scoring affair here, but I’m confident that the Niners will be able to keep this one close, unlike last week. If you’re feeling bold, this might be a good opportunity to cash in on the 49ers at +180 to win outright on the money line. This is, realistically, the last winnable game on the schedule for the Niners, and while Nick Bosa is right within their grasp, don’t expect this team, or their head coach, to give up and play like they have their sights set on the draft.
As long as Von Miller doesn’t murder Nick Mullens, the 49ers have a good shot in this one. Take the points and pray for BDN.
The pick: 49ers (+4) [Under 45.5]
JAX @ TEN - (TEN -5.5)
NYJ @ BUF - (BUF -3.5)
NYG @ WSH - (NYG -3.5)
NE @ MIA - (MIA +7.5)
IND @ HOU - (IND +5)
CAR @ CLE - (CAR -2)
ATL @ GB - (GB -5.5)
CIN @ LAC - (LAC -14)
DET @ ARI - (ARI +3)
PIT @ OAK - (OAK +10.5)
LAR @ CHI - (CHI +3)
MIN @ SEA - (MIN +3)
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