Max against the Spread | Week 10: Avoid the Hype Trains

November 8, 2018

 

 

 

 

 

I’m keeping it pretty simple this week, as a disastrous, ill-advised bet on LSU/Alabama has me scared to bet on most underdogs this time around. I bought into the pregame hype and vibe from Baton Rouge, Louisiana and threw my money away on a money line bet I never should have made. Lesson learned. Let’s see if a safe approach in the pro games will net us a positive week and put us in the black on the season.

 

Last week’s record: 7-6

Season record: 51-52

 

Thursday:

 

Panthers (+3.5) @ Steelers (-3.5)

 

Both of these teams are playing great football and this game should be fantastic. Cam Newton has been playing at a really high level, and it seems a lot of people are still sleeping on the Panthers. I’m expecting them to utilize the prime time slot to show the world that they’re for real. I’m taking them with confidence given the spread.

 

My pick: Panthers (+3.5) (-120)

 

Sunday:

 

Saints (-5) @ Bengals (+5)

 

I’m still really high on this Bengals team, and I’m still taking them to win the AFC North. This week they face Drew Brees and the Saints, who might just be the best team in the NFL. I’m all over a -5 spread for the Saints in this one.

 

My pick: Saints (-5) (-110)

Falcons (-6) @ Browns (+6)

 

The Browns hype is long gone, and the Falcons are still rolling on offense. I don’t think a touchdown is too much to ask for in this one. I’m very confident in this play.

 

My pick: Falcons (-6) (-110)

Jaguars (+3) @ Colts (-3)

 

I’m scratching my head at this spread, but I’m taking it to the bank. The Jaguars are a shell of their 2017 selves, and Andy Luck has the Colts’ offense rocking. There’s not a whole lot to say about this one. Bet Indy with the small spread and collect your winnings.

 

My pick: Colts (-3) (-EVEN)

Lions (+6.5) @ Bears (-6.5)

 

It looks like Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson will both be returning for the Bears, and that makes this matchup even more daunting for the struggling Lions. Another easy choice with this one.


My pick: Bears (-6.5) (-120)

Patriots (-6.5) @ Titans (+6.5)

 

The Titans offense actually showed signs of life in their decisive win over Dallas on Monday Night Football last week, but now they have to try replicate that against the Patriots. I’m probably getting extremely repetitive here, but these touchdown spreads for vastly superior teams are too hard to pass up this week.

 

My pick: Patriots (-6.5) (-110)

Redskins (+3) @ Buccaneers (-3)

 

As I say every single week, the Bucs are frustratingly difficult to bet on this year. The Redskins are coming off a big loss at home to the Falcons, and I’m expecting them to handle the Buccaneers with ease as they look to remain in the thick of the wide-open NFC East. Look for a Redskins cover and a likely money line victory. You can get them at +140 on the ML if you act now. I locked them into a five game parlay already so I’ll be watching this one closely.

 

My pick: Redskins (+3) (-120)

Bills (+6.5) @ Jets (-6.5) [FADE OF THE WEEK]

 

Just avoid this game. Don’t bet it, don’t watch, and try not to think about it.

 

My pick: Jets (-6.5) (-110)

Chargers (-9.5) @ Raiders (+9.5) [SLAM DUNK OF THE WEEK]

 

Betting against the Raiders has been hilarious and profitable this year. They’re currently last in the league against the spread at 2-6. The Chargers are going to embarrass them in their own house, and it’s my obvious slam dunk of the week. I’m so confident in this pick, that if the Chargers don’t cover in this one, I’ll change my Twitter Avi to a horrifying close-up of Al Davis’ face for the next week.

 

My pick: Chargers (-9.5) (-110)

Dolphins (+9.5) @ Packers (-9.5)

 

The Packers have an uphill battle ahead of them if they want a shot at the NFC North. After a tough loss on the road against the Patriots, I’m expecting a no mercy game from Aaron Rodgers in their return to Green Bay against an up-and-down Miami team who’s still without starting QB Ryan Tannehill.

 

My pick: Packers (-9.5) (-110)

Seahawks (+9.5) @ Rams (-9.5)

 

Fresh off their first loss of the year, the Rams return home to face a recently humbled Seattle team who lost a heartbreaker at home to the Chargers last week. I’m taking the Rams in this one, but I worry about Russel Wilson conjuring up some garbage time magic and ruining the spread. Avoid this one if you can.

 

My pick: Rams(-9.5) (-110)

Cowboys (+7) @ Eagles (-7)

 

The National media has been talking about how awful and dysfunctional the Cowboys are all week, so I’ll spare you and keep it simple. Philly is the play here. I’d probably take them at -14 if the spread was set at that.

 

My pick: Eagles (-7) (-110)

 

Monday:

 

Giants (+3) @ 49ers (-3)

 

Mullens Mania is sweeping across Northern California, and the smart thing to do would be to pump the breaks, but where’s the fun in that? Until the kid proves he’s not actually the son of God, I’m going to bet on him. Get it while you can, because by the time the Superbowl rolls around, betting on the Niners will involve a spread of roughly 45 points. Ignore my terrible title and hop on this hype train!

 

My pick: 49ers (-3) (-120)

 

Parlay of the week:

 

Redskins (+3)

Chargers (-9.5)

Colts (-3)

 

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