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Max Against the Spread | Week 8: Taking Mahomes to the Bank

October 26, 2018

 

 

 

After an 11-3 week picking against the spread for the Week 7 slate of contests, I’m as confident as ever. As the season unfolds, the picks become easier to make – in theory. We have more information at our disposal on who these teams are and how they operate, but with all things gambling, there are no guarantees. Let’s see if we can continue our hot streak or fall flat on our faces as we dive into Week 8.

 

Last week’s record: 11-3

Season record: 34-42

 

Thursday:

 

Dolphins (+7.5) @ Texans (-7.5)

 

The Texans are rolling, rattling off 4 straight wins after their 0-3 start. I expect another win here, and while the spread is big, I’m taking Watson and the boys to cover it handily. 

 

My pick: Texans (-7.5) (-110)

 

Sunday:

 

Eagles (-3) @ Jaguars (+3)

 

The Jaguars are a mess, and they now find themselves as dogs - in their home away from home across the pond - against the defending world champions. I have zero confidence in Bortles, and to top it off, their once daunting defense is no longer as stingy as they once were. That’s likely a direct result of Bortles’ poor play, but the point stands. That defense isn’t single-handedly winning football games like they’ve done in the past. I’m picking the Eagles to cover 3 in London.

 

My pick: Eagles (-3) (-110)

Broncos (+10) @ Chiefs (-10)

 

The Chiefs, led by ratings magnet Patrick Mahomes, are a perfect 7-0 against the spread this year. I’m not betting against them until I’m shown otherwise. They’re going to pummel the Broncos in this one, and the ten points doesn’t even phase me. 

 

My pick: Chiefs (-10) (-110)

Browns (+8.5) @ Steelers (-8.5)

 

I’m picking Cleveland in this one, because it seems like they go into overtime every single week. Operating under the assumption that happens again in week 8 all but assures a cover of 8.5. They technically could lose by 9 in overtime, but that would require an opening drive FG for Pittsburg, followed by a Baker Mayfield pick-6 to end the game. 

 

My pick: Browns (+8.5) (-110)

Redskins (+1) @ Giants (-1)

 

I do not understand this spread at all. I get that the Giants are at home, but they’ve done nothing to show that they can play competent football this season. I’m taking the Redskins with obnoxious confidence in this one. 

 

My pick: Redskins (+1) (EVEN)

Seahawks (+3) @ Lions (-3) [FADE OF THE WEEK]

 

I’m taking the Lions at home this week, but I’m not confident in doing so. Russel Wilson is a dynamic X-factor who’s at any time capable of winning a ballgame on his own. The Lions have been very up and down this season, but I’m expecting them to lean on the exciting rookie running back Kerryon Johnson in route to a victory and subsequent cover.

 

My pick: Lions (-3) (+100)

Buccaneers (+4) @ Bengals (-4)

 

After getting blown out by Kansas City, the Bengals look to rebound against the unpredictable Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I’m still a huge believer in this year’s Bengal team, and a spread of only 4 at home against this Tampa team is an easy hammer for me. I’m expecting a big outing for Joe Mixon this week.

 

My pick: Bengals (-4) (-110)

Jets (+7.5) @ Bears (-7.5)

 

The Trubisky led Bears were a yard away from tying the game against the New England Patriots last week, and despite the gut-punch finish, they have to be feeling really confident in their young quarterback. This week they have a winnable matchup against an average Jets team. New York boasts a strong secondary, but I don’t see them keeping it close enough for a cover in Soldier Field.

 

My pick: Bears (-7.5) (-110)

Ravens (-2) @ Panthers (+2)

 

I think these teams matchup really well, and I’m expecting to see a low scoring slugfest. I’m picking Carolina to cover, but really only because they’re home dogs. This one could go either way and I’m staying away from it.

 

My pick: Panthers (+2) (-110)

Colts (-3) @ Raiders (+3) [SLAM DUNK OF THE WEEK]

 

Jon Gruden’s Raiders are taking the league by storm. Led by superstar quarterback Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, and the ferocious Khalil Mack, I’m expec-

 

Wait, wrong universe.

 

The Colts are rolling on offense, and the Raiders are basically a Gary Larson “Farside” depiction of how a bad football team should look and function. Easy cover for Indy in this one.

 

My pick: Colts (-3) (+100)

49ers (+1) @ Cardinals (-1)

 

The long awaited sequel to Beathard vs. Rosen is finally upon us. The excitement is building, in the same way it likely did for Ali vs. Frazier II at Madison Square Garden. This football game will provide me a much needed break from my upcoming 48 hour “Red Dead Redemption” binge, and it will likely fail to bring me joy like the open world, western video game will. Both of these teams are bad, but I fear my 49ers are worse; Sunday will be no exception. I’m taking the Cardinals to win this one.

 

My pick: Cardinals (-1) (EVEN)

Packers (+9.5) @ Rams (-9.5)

 

Look, I get it. The Rams are incredible, and Sean McVay is actually Jesus Christ wearing a Sean McVay mask. That’s all fine and dandy, but I am not missing out on an opportunity to bet on Aaron Rodgers covering a ridiculous underdog spread of 9.5. Take the Packers, clench your cheeks, and don’t look back.

 

My pick: Packers (+9.5) (-110)

Saints (+1) @ Vikings (-1)

 

Two serious NFC contenders squaring off on Sunday Night Football, what more could you want. I’m giving a slight edge to the Saints here, but I’m staying away from betting this one if I can. While the Vikings’ defense hasn’t performed up to last year’s standard, the talent is still there and capable of clamping down at a moment’s notice. I just don’t see it happening against Brees.

 

My pick: Saints (+1) (EVEN)

 

Monday:

 

Patriots (-14) @ Bills (+14)

 

I hate enormous spreads like this. There’s absolutely no way the Bills are beating New England, but 14 points is a BIG spot in the NFL. I don’t think I’ve ever picked a favorite with a spread this large, but there’s a first time for everything. This should be a blowout, but keep an eye on the weather; if the conditions get ugly, this could turn into a low scoring affair where a Bills cover becomes much more likely. As of now, I’m taking New England to cover the two touchdowns. 

 

My pick: Patriots (-14) (-110)

Parlay of the week:

 

Packers (+9.5)

Colts (-3)

Chiefs (-10)

 

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Stay tuned to 49ersHub for more game day info!

  

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